၂ဝ၁၅ ႏုိဝင္ဘာ  ၈ ရက္ေန႔မွာ  က်င္းပမယ့္ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံရဲ႕ အေထြေထြေရြးေကာက္ပြဲဟာ  ျပည္တြင္းမွာသာမက  ျပည္ပႏုိင္ငံတခ်ိဳ႕အတြက္ပါ  စိတ္လႈပ္ရွား စရာေရြးေကာက္ပြဲျဖစ္ေနပါတယ္။ အထူးသျဖင့္ စစ္အာဏာရွင္စနစ္ေအာက္ ႏွစ္ေပါင္း ၂ဝ ေက်ာ္ ျဖတ္သန္းလာခဲ့ရတဲ့ ျမန္မာျပည္ရဲ႕ ကံၾကမၼာဟာ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲၿပီးေနာက္ပုိင္းမွာ ေပၚထြက္လာမယ့္ အစုိးရသစ္ေပၚမွာ အမ်ားႀကီး သက္ေရာက္မႈရွိေနပါတယ္။ ၂ဝ၁ဝ ျပည့္ႏွစ္ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲ ေနာက္ပုိင္းမွာ ေပၚထြက္လာခဲ့တဲ့ သမၼတ ဦးသိန္းစိန္ ဦးေဆာင္တဲ့ ျပည္ခုိင္ၿဖိဳးအစုိးရဟာ စစ္တပ္ယူနီေဖာင္း ခြၽတ္ အရပ္သားတစ္ပုိင္းအစုိးရျဖစ္ေနလုိ႔ ျပည္တြင္း ဒီမုိကေရစီ လုိလားသူေတြနဲ ့ျပည္ပ ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံသူေတြ အတြက္   စိတ္ေက်နပ္မႈအျပည့္အဝ ေပးစြမ္းႏုိင္တဲ့ အစုိးရ တစ္ရပ္ မျဖစ္ခဲ့ပါဘူး။ သမၼတဦးသိန္းစိန္က  Reformist ( ျပဳျပင္ေျပာင္းလဲေရးသမားတစ္ဦး)လုိ ႔  အစပုိင္းႏွစ္ေတြမွာ ႐ႈျမင္ခဲ့ ၾကေပမဲ့   ျပည္တြင္းဘာသာေရး ပဋိပကၡေတြ၊ ဖြဲ႕စည္းပံုျပင္ဆင္ေရး မေအာင္ျမင္မႈေတြနဲ႔ ႏုိင္ငံသားတစ္ဦးခ်င္းစီရဲ႕ လူမႈဘဝအေျခအေနေတြ ျမင့္မားလာျခင္းမရွိတဲ့ အတြက္ ျပည္တြင္းေရာ ျပည္ပ ပါ သူ႔ အစုိးရကို ယံုၾကည္မႈ က်ဆင္းခဲ့ပါတယ္။ ဒါေပမဲ့သဘာဝ သယံဇာေတြၾကြယ္၀ၿခင္း နဲ႕လုပ္ခလစာနည္းပါးျခင္းဆုိတဲ့ အခ်က္၂ ခုတည္းနဲ႔တင္  ႏုိင္ငံျခားရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံသူေတြဟာ ျမန္မာျပည္ မွာ စီးပြားေရး လာေရာက္ရင္းႏွီးလုပ္ကုိင္ဖုိ႔ဆက္ၿပီး   စိတ္ဝင္စားခဲ့ ၾကပါ တယ္။ အထူးသျဖင့္ အိမ္နီးခ်င္း တ႐ုတ္နဲ႔ ထုိင္းႏုိင္ငံ ေတြရဲ႕ စီးပြားေရးလုပ္ငန္း ေတြဟာ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံထဲကုိဆက္ၿပီး စီးဝင္လာေနပါတယ္။  ထုိင္းႏုိင္ငံရဲ ႕ အႀကီးဆံုးကုမၸဏီတစ္ခုျဖစ္တဲ့  Charoen Pokhand Group (CP) 

 

3-4

မွ အမႈေဆာင္   Dr Sarasin Viraph  သူကေတာ့   ျမန္မာ့ႏုိင္ငံေရး အေျခ အေနဟာ  ဝ႐ုန္းသုန္း ကားရွိေနေပမဲ့ စီးပြားေရးဘက္မွာ ေျဖေလွ်ာ့မႈေတြ အမ်ားႀကီး လုပ္ေဆာင္ေပးေနတဲ့ အတြက္ စီးပြားေရးဆုိင္ရာ ဆြဲေဆာင္ မႈေတြကေတာ့ ရပ္တန္႔သြားျခင္း မရွိ ပါဘူးလုိ႔ ေျပာဆုိခဲ့ပါတယ္။ CP အုပ္စု ဟာ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံမွာ ႏွစ္ေပါင္း ၂ဝ နီးပါး ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈေတြ လုပ္ကုိင္ခဲ့ၿပီး အခု ခ်ိန္မွာလည္း လုပ္ငန္းေတြ တုိးခ်ဲ႕ လုပ္ကုိင္လ်က္ရွိပါတယ္။(FDI)  ျပည္ပတုိက္႐ိုက္ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံခြင့္ေၾကာင့္ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံရဲ႕ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈဟာ ၂ဝ၁၄-၂ဝ၁၅ဘ႑ာေရး ႏွစ္မွာ ၅ ဘီလီယံအထိ တုိးတက္လာပါ တယ္။ ၂ဝ၁ဝ ျပည့္ႏွစ္တုန္းက ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံမွာ ႏုိင္ငံျခား ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈပမာဏဟာ အေမရိကန္ေဒၚလာသန္း  ၉ဝဝ ပဲ ရွိပါတယ္။ ၂ဝ၁၁ ခုႏွစ္ေနာက္ပုိင္း ႏုိင္ငံေရး  ျပဳျပင္ ေျပာင္းလဲေရးနဲ႔အတူ ႏုိင္ငံျခားရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ေတြ တုိးတက္လာတာပါ။  အထူးသျဖင့္ စြမ္းအင္က႑၊ ထုတ္ကုန္က႑နဲ ့ဆက္သြယ္ေရးက႑ေတြမွာ တုိး တက္လာတာျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

1-2

ဒါ့အျပင္ မီးခုိးတိတ္ စီးပြားေရးလုပ္ငန္းလုိ႔ နာမည္ႀကီးတဲ့ ခရီးသြားလုပ္ငန္းဟာလည္း ၂ဝ၁ဝ ျပည့္ ႏွစ္ေနာက္ပုိင္းမွာ ႏွစ္စဥ္တုိးတက္ေနပါတယ္။ ၂ဝ၁၂ ခုႏွစ္မွာ  ၁.ဝ၄သန္း ၊ ၂ဝ၁၃ ခုႏွစ္ မွာ ၂.ဝ၄သန္းနဲ ႔     ၂ဝ၁၄ ခုႏွစ္မွာ  ၃ သန္းနီးပါးအထိ ဝင္ေရာက္ခဲ့ပါတယ္။ ဒါေပ မဲ့အိမ္နီးခ်င္းႏုိင္ငံေတြနဲ႔ ႏိႈင္းယွဥ္ရင္ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံရဲ႕ ခရီးသြားလုပ္ငန္းဟာ  နိမ့္က်ေနပါတယ္။  ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံ ကုိ ကမ ၻာလွည့္ခရီးသြား  ၃ သန္းေလာက္ ဝင္ေနတဲ့  အခ်ိန္ မွာ လာအုိ၊ ကေမၻာဒီးယားစတဲ့ႏုိင္ငံေတြကုိ ၇ သန္း ေလာက္ ဝင္ေရာက္ေနပါတယ္။ ထုိင္းဆုိရင္ ၂ဝ၁၄ ခုႏွစ္မွာ ခရီးသြား ၂၈ သန္းေလာက္ ဝင္ထားပါတယ္။ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံမွာ  ကမၻာလွည့္ခရီးသြားေတြ အဓိက ႀကံဳ ေတြ႕ေနရတဲ့ ျပႆနာက ဟုိတယ္ေစ်းႏႈန္းႀကီးျမင့္မႈနဲ႔ အခန္းမလံုေလာက္မႈ ျပႆနာေတြပါပဲ။ ေနာက္တစ္ ခုက  ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံမွာ    Home Stay ေနထုိင္ခြင့္ကုိ တရား ဝင္ ခြင့္ျပဳခ်က္ မရေသးပါဘူး။  ဒါေၾကာင့္  ခရီးသြားအား လံုးဟာ  ဟုိတယ္ေတြမွာပဲ ေစ်းႀကီးေပး တည္းခုိေနရ ပါတယ္။ ႏုိင္ငံတကာ ေလဆိပ္ရွိတ့ဲ  ရန္ကုန္ၿမိဳ ႕မွာေတာင္ ဟုိတယ္ခန္း ၈ဝဝဝ ေက်ာ္ပဲရွိပါတယ္။ ဟုိတယ္နဲ႔ ခရီးသြားလာေရးဝန္ႀကီးဌာန ညႊန္ၾကားေရးမွဴးခ်ဳပ္ ဦးေအာင္ေဇာ္ဝင္းကေတာ့Myanmar Tourism Master Plan  တစ္ခုလုပ္ေနၿပီး ၂ဝ၂ဝ ျပည့္ႏွစ္မွာ ကမၻာလွည့္ခရီးသြား ခုႏွစ္သန္းခြဲအထိရေအာင္ လုပ္ ေဆာင္ေနတယ္လုိ ့ ဆုိပါတယ္။ ဒါေပမဲ့  တရား ဥပေဒ စုိးမုိးေရးအားနည္းခ်က္ရွိေနလုိ ့ ကမ ၻာလွည့္ခရီးသြား ေတြ လုယက္ခံရတာ၊ ႐ိုက္ႏွက္ခံရတာနဲ႔ မဖြယ္မရာ ျပဳလုပ္ခံရတဲ့ ကိစၥေတြလည္း  က်ယ္က်ယ္ျပန္႔ျပန္႔ ျဖစ္ ပြားခဲ့ပါတယ္။ ဒါ့အျပင္ ဗီဇာခြင့္ျပဳခ်က္မရွိဘဲ ျမန္မာ ႏုိင္ငံထဲကုိေရာက္ရွိေနတဲ့   အိမ္နီးခ်င္း စီးပြား ေရးသမား ေတြ မ်ားစြာရွိေနပါတယ္။  ၾသဂုတ္လကုန္ ပုိင္းအတြင္း မႏၲေလးၿမိဳ႕ထဲမွာ ဗီဇာခြင့္ျပဳခ်က္မရွိဘဲ စီးပြားေရး  လာေရာက္လုပ္ကုိင္ေနတဲ့  တ႐ုတ္ႏုိင္ငံသား ရာေပါင္း မ်ားစြာရွိေနတဲ့အေၾကာင္း   သတင္းေတြ ထြက္ေပၚခဲ့သလုိ၊ မႏၲေလးၿမိဳ႕ရွိ ေဆာက္လုပ္ေရးလုပ္ငန္းခြင္တစ္ခုမွာ  တရားဝင္ခြင့္ျပဳခ်က္ ဗီဇာမရွိဘဲ ေနထုိင္ေနတဲ့ တ႐ုတ္ ႏုိင္ငံသား ၁၂ ဦးကုိ လူဝင္မႈ ႀကီးၾကပ္ေရးအက္ဥပေဒနဲ႔ အေရးယူထားတဲ့အေၾကာင္း မႏၲေလးတုိင္းေဒသႀကီး လူဝင္မႈႀကီးၾကပ္ေရးႏွင့္ အမ်ိဳးသားမွတ္ပံုတင္ဦးစီးဌာန   တုိင္းဦးစီးမွဴး ဦးေသာင္းေဇာ္က ေျပာပါတယ္။ ဒါဟာ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံမွာ စီးပြားေရးလာလုပ္တဲ့ ႏုိင္ငံျခားသား ေတြနဲ႔ပတ္သက္ၿပီး  တရား ဥပေဒစုိးမုိးေရးအားနည္းေနတာကုိေဖာ္ညႊန္း ရာ ေရာက္ေနပါတယ္။

5-6

အစုိးရသစ္ လက္ထက္မွာ  ကားတင္သြင္းခြင့္ မူဝါဒပုိင္းကုိ ေျဖေလွ်ာ့မႈေပးလုိက္တဲ့အတြက္   ရန္ကုန္ အပါအဝင္ ၿမိဳ႕ ႀကီးေတြမွာ ယာဥ္ေၾကာပိတ္ဆုိ႔မႈ  ျပႆနာ ေတြ ဆုိးဆုိးဝါးဝါးျဖစ္ေပၚေနပါတယ္။ လက္ရွိမွာ  ရန္ကုန္ ၿမိဳ႕ ရဲ႕  လူဦးေရဟာ ၇.၄ သန္းရွိပါတယ္။ အဲဒီထဲမွာ အုိးပုိင္ အိမ္ပုိင္မရွိဘဲ အခန္းငွားေနထုိင္သူေတြက သံုးပံု တစ္ပံုေလာက္ရွိေနပါတယ္။ ဒါေၾကာင့္ ရန္ကုန္ၿမိဳ႕ရဲ႕ အိမ္ျခံေျမ အငွားေစ်းႏႈန္းဟာ အေရွ႕ေတာင္အာရွမွာ အျမင့္ဆံုးအေနအထားျဖစ္ေနပါတယ္။ ႐ိုး႐ိုးတုိက္ ခန္းငွားခေတြဟာ တစ္လကုိ ၁ သိန္း မွ ၃ သိန္းအထိ ရွိေနၿပီး ကြန္ဒုိအခန္းငွားခေတြ ၁ဝ သိန္းမွ သိန္း ၃ဝ ထိရွိေနပါတယ္။   အဲဒီလုိ အိမ္ငွားခေတြ  ႀကီးျမင့္လာ တာနဲ႔အမွ် က်ဴးေက်ာ္ေနထုိင္သူေတြရဲ႕ ျပႆနာက လည္း   အဆုိးဝါးဆံုး ရင္ဆုိင္ေနရပါတယ္။  အဲဒီကိစၥဟာ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံမွာ  ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈေတြလုပ္ဖုိ႔ ႏုိင္ငံျခားသား ေတြ အဓိက စိတ္အေႏွာင့္အယွက္ၾကံဳေတြ႕ေနရတဲ့ အေၾကာင္းတရားေတြပါပဲ။ၿမန္မာႏုိင္ငံဟာ အခုႏွစ္ကုန္ပုိင္းမွာ အာဆီယံ စီးပြားေရးအသုိက္အဝန္း AEC အဖြဲ႕ဝင္ႏုိင္ငံျဖစ္လာ ပါေတာ့မယ္။ အဲဒီအခ်ိန္မွာ အာဆီယံႏုိင္ငံက ကုန္ ပစၥည္းေတြအျပင္ ကြၽမ္းက်င္ လုပ္သားေတြဟာ ျပည္တြင္း ကုိ တံခါးမရွိ ဓားမရွိ  ဝင္ထြက္ ၾကပါလိမ့္မယ္။  ဒါေပမဲ့ ကြၽမ္းက်င္ လုပ္သားရွားပါးမႈနဲ႔ ျပည္တြင္း အေျခခံ အေဆာက္အအံု အျပည့္ အဝ မရွိျခင္းေတြေၾကာင့္ AEC က ေကာင္းက်ိဳးထက္ ဆုိးက်ိဳး ေတြကုိ ပုိၿပီးယူေဆာင္လာမယ္ လုိ႔  ေျပာဆုိေဝဖန္မႈေတြ ရွိေန ပါတယ္။ အာရွဖြံ႕ ၿဖိဳးေရးဘဏ္ ADB  ကေတာ့ ၂ဝ၁၅- ၂ဝ၁၆  ဘ႑ာေရးႏွစ္မွာ ျပည္တြင္း ထုတ္ကုန္ဟာ ၈.၃ ရာခုိင္ႏႈန္း အထိ တုိးတက္လာမယ္လုိ ့ ခန္႔မွန္းထားပါတယ္။  Asian Development Outlook ႏွစ္ပတ္လည္ အစီရင္ ခံစာထဲမွာေတာ့ ျမန္မာျပည္ရဲ႕တည္ေဆာက္ပံုျပဳျပင္ ေျပာင္းလဲေရး အစီအစဥ္ဟာၿပီးခဲ့တဲ့ႏွစ္ ေတြက  တုိးတက္မႈ ရွိခဲ့သလုိ  ေနာက္ႏွစ္ေတြမွာ လည္းဆက္ၿပီး တုိးတက္ေနမယ္လုိ႔ ထုတ္ျပန္ထားပါတယ္။လက္ရွိ အစုိးရသက္တမ္းမွာ ထင္သာျမင္သာ အရွိဆံုး စီးပြားေရးလုပ္ငန္းတစ္ခုျဖစ္တဲ့  သီလဝါ အထူး စီးပြားေရးဇုန္ဟာ လာမယ့္ အစုိးရသစ္လက္ထက္မွာ အမွန္တကယ္လည္ပတ္ေတာ့မွာပါ။ တုိင္းျပည္ဖြံ႔ၿဖိဳး တုိးတက္ေရး အေၾကာင္းျပခ်က္နဲ႔  ေျမဟက္တာ ၂၄ဝဝ ကုိ အစုိးရဥပစာေျမအျဖစ္သိမ္းယူၿပီး တည္ေဆာက္ ေနတဲ့ဧရာမစီးပြားေရးဇုန္ႀကီးပါ။ ဒါ့အျပင္ ထားဝယ္ အထူးစီးပြားေရးဇုန္နဲ႔ ေက်ာက္ျဖဴအထူးစီးပြားေရးဇုန္ ေတြဟာလည္း   ေနာက္အစုိးရသက္တမ္းမွာ  က်ယ္ က်ယ္ျပန္႔ျပန္႔ စခန္းသြားရဦးမယ့္ စီမံကိန္းေတြပါ။ 

7-8

အဲဒီ လုိ ႏုိင္ငံတြင္းမွာ  စီးပြားေရးဇုန္ေတြ ေပၚေပါက္လာေန ေပ မဲ့  ႏုိင္ငံတြင္းမွာရွိတဲ့  ျပည္သူ  ၃ဝ ရာခုိင္ႏႈန္းေအာက္ ပဲ လွ်ပ္စစ္မီးရေနတဲ့ အေျခအေနမ်ိဳးျဖစ္ေနပါတယ္။ ဒါ့အျပင္  ျပည္သူတစ္ဦးခ်င္း၏  ပ်မ္းမွ်ဝင္ေငြဟာ ၂ဝ၁၁ ခုႏွစ္မွာ စတာလင္ ၅၉ ေပါင္ ေအာက္ေလ်ာ့နည္းေန ေသးသလုိ   လက္ရွိ အခ်ိန္မွာလည္း  တုိးတက္ေကာင္းမြန္ လာျခင္း မရွိေသးဘူးလုိ႔ ႏုိင္ငံတကာစီးပြားေရးပညာ ရွင္ေတြ ေထာက္ျပေျပာဆုိေနၾကပါတယ္။ ၿပီးခဲ့တဲ့လပုိင္းမွေတာ့  အနိမ့္ဆုံးလုပ္ခလစာနဲ႔ ပတ္သက္ၿပီး အလုပ္ရွင္နဲ႔ အလုပ္သမားၾကားမွာ ျပႆနာေတြ  အႀကီးအက်ယ္ ႀကံဳေတြ ႕ခဲ့ပါေသးတယ္။ ေနာက္ဆံုးမွာေတာ့ တစ္ရက္ အနိမ့္ဆံုး လုပ္ခ လစာ ၃၆ဝဝ ဆုိၿပီး အစုိးရက ဝင္ေရာက္ညိႇႏိႈင္းေျဖရွင္ေပးခဲ့ ရပါတယ္။ ဒါေပမဲ့ လက္ရွိ ေဒၚလာေစ်းဟာ ၁၂၇၅ က်ပ္ထိ  အျမင့္ဆံုးအေနအထားျဖစ္ေနလုိ ့လုပ္သား တစ္ဦးရဲ ့တစ္ေန႔ဝင္ေငြဟာ ၂.၈ ေဒၚလာေလာက္ပဲ ရွိပါတယ္။ အဲဒီပမာဏဟာ စားဝတ္ေနေရးအတြက္ ဘယ္လုိမွေျဖရွင္းေပးႏုိင္တဲ့ အေနအထား မဟုတ္ ပါဘူး။ဦးသိန္းစိန္အစုိးရမွာ စီးပြားေရးျပဳျပင္ ေျပာင္း လဲေရးနဲ႔ပတ္သက္ၿပီး အႀကီးမားဆံုးရင္ဆုိင္ေနရတဲ့ အခက္အခဲတစ္ခုက  အက်င့္ပ်က္ျခစားမႈပါပဲ။  ဒါ့အျပင္ အရင္စစ္အစုိးရလက္ထက္က  ပြင့္လင္းျမင္သာမႈ မရွိဘဲလုပ္ကုိင္ခဲ့တဲ့ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈလုပ္ငန္းေတြကုိလက္ရွိအခ်ိန္မွာ ျပည္သူေတြရဲ ျပင္းျပင္းထန္ထန္ကန္႔ကြက္မႈနဲ႔ႀကံဳေတြ႕ေနရပါတယ္။ ေျပာရမယ္ဆုိရင္တ႐ုတ္ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈေတြျဖစ္တဲ့လက္ပံေတာင္း ေတာင္ေၾကး နီစီမံကိန္း၊  ေက်ာက္ျဖဴသဘာဝဓာတ္ ေငြ႕ပိုက္လုိင္းနဲ ့တျခားစီးပြားေရးလုပ္ငန္းမ်ားစြာဟာ ျပည္သူေတြရဲ႕ ကန္႔ကြက္မႈနဲ႔ ႀကံဳေတြ႕ေနရသလုိ ျမစ္ ဆံုဆည္စီမံကိန္းဆုိရင္လည္း ၂ဝ၁၆ ခုႏွစ္မွာ တက္လာမယ့္ အစုိးရသစ္က ဆက္ၿပီး  ေျဖရွင္းရမယ့္ျပႆနာ အစိတ္အပုိင္းေတြ ျဖစ္ေနပါတယ္။ဒီေနရာမွာ   ဖိလစ္ပုိင္ႏုိင္ငံရဲ႕ အေနအထားဟာ အတုယူစရာ နမူနာမ်ားစြာရွိပါသည္။  ၂ဝ၁ဝ ျပည့္ႏွစ္ ဘန္နင္ႏိုအာကီြႏုိ သမၼတရာထူးဆက္ခံခ်ိန္က ဖိလစ္ပုိင္ႏုိင္ငံဟာ အာရွရဲ႕ အဂတိလုိက္စားမႈ အျမင့္ဆံုးႏုိင္ငံစာရင္းဝင္ႏုိင္ငံပါ။ ယေန ႔ခ်ိန္မွာေတာ့ ဖိလစ္ပုိင္ ဟာ  အာရွရဲ႕နာမက်န္းလူအုိႀကီးအျဖစ္ (အဂတိလုိက္ စားမႈ ဆုိးရြားသည့္ အေနအထား ) ကုိ  တြန္းလွန္ဖယ္ရွား ႏုိင္ခဲ့ပါၿပီ။ ဒါ့အျပင္ စီးပြားေရးဖြံ႕ ၿဖိဳးတုိးတက္မႈႏႈန္းမွာ လည္း အာရွထိပ္တန္းတ႐ုတ္ကုိ စိန္ေခၚႏုိင္သည့္ အေျခအေနမ်ိဳးထိ ေရာက္ရွိလာပါတယ္။ဘယ္လုိပဲျဖစ္ျဖစ္ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံဟာ ေနာက္ရက္ ေပါင္း ၆ဝ အတြင္းမွာ ျပည္သူေတြေမွ်ာ္လင့္ေနတဲ့ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲတစ္ခု က်င္းပရပါေတာ့မယ္။ အႏုိင္ ရတဲ့ပါတီဟာ ၂ဝ၁၆ ခုႏွစ္မွာ အစုိးရသစ္ဖြဲ႕စည္းၿပီး တုိင္းျပည္ကုိဆက္ၿပီး ေမာင္းႏွင္ရပါလိမ့္မယ္။ လက္ ရွိအာဏာရပါတီနဲ႔ အတုိက္အခံ အန္အယ္ဒီတုိ႔က ႏုိင္ ေျခ အျမင့္ဆံုးပါတီေတြအျဖစ္   ေရပန္းစားေနပါ တယ္။  က်န္ပါတီငယ္ေတြနဲ ့ တုိင္းရင္းသားပါတီေတြလည္း မ်ားစြာရွိေနပါေသးတယ္။  ဒါ့အျပင္ လက္ရွိဖြဲ႕စည္းပံု အရ  လႊတ္ေတာ္ထဲမွာ ၂၅ ရာခုိင္ႏႈန္းထုိင္ေနခြင့္ရ ေန တဲ့ တပ္မေတာ္ဟာလည္း ေနာင္အစုိးရသက္တမ္းမွာ ဆက္ၿပီး ႏုိင္ငံေရးမွာ ပါဝင္ေနၾကဦးမွာပါ။  ေသခ်ာတာ ကေတာ့ အစုိးရသစ္ဟာ ျမန္မာႏုိင္ငံသားေတြ  ၾကံဳ ေတြ႕ ေနရတဲ့ တစ္ဦးခ်င္းဝင္ေငြနိမ့္ပါးမႈ၊ ဆင္းရဲႏြမ္းပါးမႈ၊ အလုပ္အကုိင္ရွားပါးမႈနဲ ့ စားဝတ္ေနေရးအခက္အခဲ ေတြကုိ ေျပလည္မႈရေအာင္ မျဖစ္မေန ေျဖရွင္းေပးရပါ လိမ့္မယ္။  အဲဒီလုိ ေျဖရွင္းတဲ့ေနရာမွာ အေရးႀကီးဆံုး အခ်က္က ဘာျဖစ္မလဲ။ အတုိက္အခံေခါင္းေဆာင္ အန္အယ္ဒီပါတီ ဥကၠ႒ ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္က ေတာ့  'ဒီႏုိင္ငံအတြက္ အေရးႀကီးဆံုး လုိအပ္ေနတာ က တရားဥပေဒစုိးမုိးေရးပဲ။ ကြၽန္မတုိ႔ဟာ  အရမ္း ေကာင္းတဲ့ စီးပြားေရးအခြင့္အလမ္းေတြ ပုိင္ဆုိင္ဖုိ႔ ဆုိရင္ မူဝါဒပုိင္းေတြ ခ်မွတ္ႏုိင္တယ္။ ဒါေပမဲ့ တရား ဥပေဒစုိးမုိးမႈမရွိဘဲ နဲ ့ေတာ့  ဘယ္အရာမွ ေအာင္ျမင္မႈ မရႏုိင္ဘူး'လုိ ့ အတိအလင္း ေျပာဆုိထားပါတယ္။

မင္းညီ

 

 

Can we expect an economy which bases on the Rule of Law after 2016?

The Myanmar’s election which will be held on 8th November, 2015 is attracting not only the local interests, but also the international interests. Especially, the fate of Myanmar which had been under military regime for more than two decades relies a lot on the new government which will emerge after the election.After 2010 election, the semi-civilian government with lots of former military officials which is led by President U Thein Sein emerged. But as it is only semi-civilian government, local democracy activists and foreign investors are not fully happy with that. During the initial years of term, U Thein Sen was assumed as a reformist but later the trust he gained from local and international decreased due to communal religious conflicts, failure to restructure the constitution and failure to raise the social standards of the people. But some of the foreign investors keep on investing in the country as Myanmar has two factors, rich in natural resources and low labour wages. Especially, businesses from neighbouring countries like China and Thai are keep on flowing into Myanmar. The Executive Chairman Dr. Sarasin Virapol from Charoen Pokhand Group (CP), the largest company in Thailand said that Myanmar’s situation seems chaotic but some of the restrictions in business are released and the attraction for investment never stopped. CP group has been running its business in Myanmar for more than twenty years and currently also, they are expanding their businesses.

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Because of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Myanmar’s investment industry has increased 5 billion during 2014 - 2015 budget years. In 2010, foreign investment in Myanmar was only 900 billion. After 2011, the foreign investment increased in accordance with the political changes. Especially, the foreign investments are increased in Energy, Production and Communication sectors.
 Moreover, the Tourism Industry which is also known as non-smoking industry also increased every year since after 2010. 1.04 million Tourists in 2012, 2.04 million in 2013 and nearly 3 millions in 2014 respectively visited to Myanmar. But comparing to the neighbouring countries, Myanmar’s tourism industry is still low. When 3 million tourists are visiting Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia are having nearly millions tourists visiting their countries. In Thailand, there were 28 million tourists in 2014. The main and remaining problem for the tourists is the high hotel room charges and not enough rooms for visitors. Moreover, the Home Stay is not legally allowed yet in Myanmar. So, all of the tourists have to stay at the hotels with high prices. Even in Yangon which has the international airport, there are only around 8000 hotel rooms available. U Aung Zaw Win DG of directorate of Hotels and Tourism,   Myanmar’s Minister of the Ministry of Hotel and Tourism said that the ministry is now developing the Myanmar Tourism Master Plan to attract 20 million tourists in 2020. But as the country is still weak in rule of law, some of the tourists have attacked, robbed and raped. There are also illegal migrant workers from neighbouring countries living in Myanmar. During end of August, news about more than 100 illegal migrant workers in Mandalay was surfaced. And also, U Thaung Zaw, Mandalay Region Immigration and National Registration Department Head stated the news about 12 Chinese migrant workers without official visa working in a construction site in Mandalay were charged with immigration act. The new government decreased restrictions on vehicle importing and as a consequence of it, there is very severe traffic problems in Yangon and other major cities. Currently, there are approximately 7.4 million people living in Yangon and one-third of that population doesn’t own a house and living on leased houses. So, Yangon’s real estate price is almost the highest in South East Asia. Rental rate per month for regular apartments are 100,000 to 300,000 Kyats and the rental of condo prices varies from one million to thirty million Kyats per month. As the real estate rental prices are rising, the issue of squatted residents are also very serious. These are some of the issues which are annoying the foreigners who have investment interest in Myanmar.

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    By the end of this year (2015), Myanmar will become a member of Asean Economic Community. At that time, not only the products, but also the skilled labours from ASEAN countries will flooded into Myanmar without boundaries. But as Myanmar is lack of skilled local labours and infrastructures, some are criticizing that AEC will bring more bad effects rather than good effects. The Asia Development Bank (ADB) predicted that GDP in Myanmar will increase 8.3% in 2015 – 2016 budget year. In the Asian Development Outlook annual report, it is stated that Myanmar’s transition has improved in last few years and also it will keep on improving in the coming years. Thilawa Special Economic Zone, which is the most obvious economic projects for the current government, will operate practically in the upcoming new government. With the reason to implement the development plans, the government occupied the 2400 hectare of land and developing this giant economic zone. Moreover, Dawei Special Economic Zone and Kyauk Phyu Special Economic Zone will also widely continue in next term of new government. Even though such special economic zones are emerging, only fewer than 30% of the country’s population are living with the stable electricity. And more, international economists are point out that Myanmar’s individual average income was less than 59 Pounds and it wasn’t improve that much until now. During recent months, there was a huge debate between the employers and employees concerning to the minimum wages. Finally, the government intervened with the solution of providing 3600 kyats per day as the minimum wage. But currently, the currency exchange rate is as high as 1275 Kyats per one USD. So, it means that the minimum daily wage for a labour is more or less equivalent with 2.8 USD. That amount is not a good solution for their daily expenses.
    The biggest challenge which confronting the most to U Thein Sein Government’s economic reform is the corruption. Moreover, some of the investment projects which were implemented without transparency by previous military government also faced strong public protests. Currently, some of the projects such as Latpadaung Taung Copper Projects, Kyauk Phyu Gas Pipeline which are invested by Chinese and several others are facing the public objection. The Myit-Sone Dam project issue also is the one which the new government will have to handle and sort out. In this case, there are a lot of role scenarios which we can learn from the Philippines. In 2010, when the Benigno Aquino became the president of the Philippines, it was the highest in the Asia’s corrupted countries list. Nowadays, Philippine has fought against the Asian’s Sick Old Man (facing severe corruption) title and even challenging China on economic development.

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    However, Myanmar is going to have its election which the people are expecting in less than 60 days. The winning party will form a new government in 2016 and has to steer the country. Current party in power and the opposition party NLD are most popular among the political parties running for the election. The other smaller parties and the ethnical parties are out there too. And the 25% of military representatives in the Hluttaw will remain there and keep on involving in politics according to the current constitution. One thing for sure is the new government must solve the issues of low GDP, poverty, employment opportunities and livelihood issues of Myanmar people. What will be the most important factor to solve those issues? The opposition party leader Daw Aung San Su Kyi clearly stated that “What this country urgently need is the rule of law. We can develop best policies to get the best economic opportunities but without the rule of law, nothing can be achieved”.

By Min Nyi

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